random forecast

Establishment of the Holt-Winter forecast model could make decomposing study on time series which has linear trend, seasonal change and random wave, and separately estimate the long-term trend, increase of trend and seasonal wave with combining the exponential smoothing.

建立Holt-Winter预测模型，将具有线性趋势、季节变动和随机波动的时间序列进行分解研究，并与指数平滑法相结合，分别对长期趋势、趋势的增量和季节波动做出估计。

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For example, in the aspect of forest fire forecast, the main cause of forest fire was artificial fire, which had lots of randomness. So Markov random processes could be employed in the study.

在预测林火发生方面，考虑到人为火是发生森林火灾的主要原因，有很大随机性，因而采用了马尔科夫随机过程理论。

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Introducing the con-cept of random forecast, we propose to adopt a combined indicator, which is more reasonable for estimating the quality of the proton-event forecast.

并在引入了随机预报的概念之后，推导出判别预报水平高低的一种较合理的总指标公式。

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