when expectations of inflation are low, inflation itself tends to stay low.

in a normal world, one would expect these to be far higher.

在一个正常的世界里，实际利率和通胀预期都应该高得多。

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in the uk, they are somewhat higher.

在英国，通胀预期稍高一些。

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expectation, excess liquidity and inflation dynamics in china

通胀预期、流动性过剩与中国通货膨胀的动态性质

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investment theme: inflation expectations under the resource stocks.

投资主题一：通胀预期下的资源类个股。

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when inflation expectations rise, real interest rates should be positive.

通胀预期增强时，实际利率应为正值。

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jpmorgan, for example, has just surveyed 1,800 investors ( see right), in which median expectations for inflation in the us, eurozone and uk are 1-1.5 per cent by late 2010.

例如，JP摩根（JPMorgan）刚刚调查了1800名投资者（见右），他们对2010年底以前美国、欧元区和英国的通胀预期中值为1%至1.5%。

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simon johnson, chief economist at the imf, says: "we do not think there has been a big movement up in expected inflation globally."

imf首席经济学家西蒙约翰逊（simon johnson）表示：“我们认为，全球通胀预期并未出现大幅上升的势头。”

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the world bank raised its growth forecast for china this year to 9.5 per cent, although it warned that tighter monetary policy and a stronger currency were needed to prevent bubbles and rising inflationary expectations.

世界银行（world bank）将中国经济今年增长预期上调至9.5%，不过该机构警告称，中国需要收紧货币政策，并让人民币升值，以防止泡沫和通胀预期不断上升。

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at the same time, expectations management, specifically inflation expectation management, is expected to become the consensus of the government.

与此同时，对预期尤其是通胀预期的管理成为决策机构的共识。

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the most obvious setting for low key lighting is night time, but it can also be found in other situations such as storms and in interiors .

最明显的设置为低的关键是夜间的照明时间，但它也可以发现，在其他情况下如暴风雨和在内部。

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the drama of this image is emphasised by the low key lighting.

这张图片的戏剧感透过暗色调光照得到加强。

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film noir [film nw'a: r] n. a movie characterized by low-key lighting, a bleak urban setting, and corrupt, cynical characters.

灰色电影：以暗调的灯光，阴暗的都市街景，腐化与讽刺性的人物为特征的电影。

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inflation doves point out that core numbers which strip these out are generally benign; january consumer prices in the us, for example, actually fell month-on-month.

通胀温和派指出，剔除这些因素后的核心通胀率总体而言仍较为温和；例如，美国1月份的消费者价格实际较上月有所下降。

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price rise figures this week from china, where core inflation excluding food and energy is far below headline inflation, could show a slowdown, economists say.

经济学家表示，本周中国发布的通胀数据可能会出现放缓。在中国，不包括食品和能源价格的核心通胀率远低于总体通胀率。

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over the coming year, however, below-capacity output growth and softening oil and commodity prices are likely to push core inflation back towards the comfort zone.

然而在未来一年，低于产能的产出增长以及石油和大宗商品价格回软，有可能推动核心通胀向“适宜区间”回落。

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and when it comes to core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy items, rents make up an even larger share of about 41%.

在剔除价格波动较大的食品和能源商品的核心通胀率中，房租占比就更高了，达到41%左右。

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using the new keynesian phillips curve, i estimate the core inflation rate and the output gap in the post-reform period in a bivariate unobserved components model.

利用新菲利普斯曲线，本文设定包含通胀与产出的非观测成分模型估计中国的核心通胀率与产出缺口。

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but, as mr bini smaghi points out, headline inflation has long been consistently higher than core because commodity prices have mostly moved upwards.

但是，正如尼•斯马吉所指出的那样，总体通胀率已经长期稳定高于核心通胀率了，因为大宗商品价格水平总体在向上移动。

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simply put, a sustained move of headline inflation to the levels of the 1970s is unlikely without an accompanying increase in the core component.

简言之，如果没有伴随着核心通胀的上升，总体通胀的持续上涨就不可能达到上世纪70年代的水平。

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non-food inflation is the main measure of core inflation in china, and is where wage gains would normally be expected to show up.

非食品类通货膨胀是中国核心通胀率的主要指标，这也是涨工资后通常会产生的现象。

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